Conventional osprey wisdom tells us that young female adults return to the UK as two-year-olds and roam widely, prospecting for a suitable mate and nest.

At the Dyfi Osprey Project over the years, we have seen many of these mainstream ecological ideas turned on their head - the case of Blue 24 might just be another one. Let's revisit this and start at the beginning:

Blue 24 - A 2010 female osprey from Rutland Water

Glesni and Blue 24 are cousins. Blue 24's father (Maroon AA, born 2006) is the brother of Glesni's mum, 5N (born 2004). Both birds were born within days of each other at the Rutland Osprey Project in 2010, and as we now know, both birds have been attracted to the Dyfi; one has been very successful from a breeding standpoint, the other not.

Blue 24 spent most of her first summer back in the UK on the south coast of England at Arlington reservoir near Eastbourne. The following year, while her cousin Glesni got lucky when Monty's regular partner, Nora, failed to return to the Dyfi, Blue 24 was not so fortunate. It was simply a matter of being in the right place at the right time - which is why young females tend to roam around a lot of course.

Four areas where we know Blue 24 has visited

Blue 24 was also spotted at her ancestral Rutland Water in 2013 as well as the Dyfi and Glaslyn nests. So up to this point, her movements as a young adult were conforming to the textbook notion of what 'we think' an osprey should do.

Things started to change last year. Blue 24 was back early in 2014 - over a week earlier than both Monty and Glesni, and by the time the resident pair had returned, Blue 24 had claimed the Dyfi nest as her own. Not only that, she had attracted a new partner - Dai Dot.

Dai Dot (left) and Blue 24 bond together on the Dyfi nest in early April 2014

Both birds were eventually 'evicted' and a few days later, Dai had found another nest and mate in Mid-Wales and went on to father two chicks for the first time. Again, Blue 24 was not so lucky. She lingered around the Dyfi throughout the season with the occasional visit to the Glaslyn. Her strategy to stay on the Dyfi didn't work out.

Fast forward to this year and both Monty and Blue 24 arrived back from their wintering grounds within hours of each other on 7th April.

The following day however, Glesni returned and quickly despatched her luckless cousin. Again.

So, the big dilemma. What would Blue 24 do in 2015? Stay on the Dyfi hoping for something to go wrong on Monty and Glesni's nest? Maybe a new male would come along and whisk her off her talons? Surely it would be better to start travelling again looking for a new nest site?

Her decision has surprised us. Here she is yesterday afternoon, around 520m form the Dyfi nest, taken with a high-powered lens from the 360 Observatory:

For around a week after Monty and Glesni returned this year, we didn't see her. By mid-April however, Blue 24 was back on the Dyfi and has been a permanent fixture on the landscape since. She has three or four favourite perches up to a mile away from the Dyfi nest that we can see from the 360 Observatory.

Her behaviour has changed over the last few days. Rather than occupying and staying on these favourite perches, she has been getting closer. Those of you watching the Live Streaming will have noticed an increase in Glesni's 'chipping' intruder calls. Blue 24 never gets so close as to cause complete pandemonium (as she has done in previous years), but she's getting closer, definitely.

Maybe now she is realising that yet another breeding window is about to slam shut on her for another year? Are these recent intrusions a last-gasp effort to lure Monty away, or preferably, depose her cousin who's incubating three eggs which are due to hatch at the end of May?

Blue 24 isn't doing what the textbooks say she should be doing. She's not conforming to the conventional wisdom of what 'we' think she should be doing. This is a very deviant way of behaving by Blue 24; how very un-ecological of her.

The truth is of course, we don't know half as much as we would like to (or think we do) about osprey behaviour and breeding-dispersal movements. Have you ever heard people say "well, we know enough about ospreys now - there's not much more we can learn"? I hear it all the time.

It's only during the last few years since the advent of digital cameras and HD video, along with a handful of osprey projects, we are starting to gain insights into the innermost workings of osprey life based on tracking and ringing research. Blue 24's strategy seems non-conformist (whatever that means) to us, but it has almost worked. It has almost worked a few times.

Blue 24 on the Dyfi nest in 2014 - it almost worked out for her

In a parallel universe, Glesni might not have come back in 2014 or 2015 and Blue 24 may now be incubating three eggs on the Dyfi nest, rather than her cousin. Glesni might not have had the energy in 2014 to regain her nest from Blue 24 - she almost didn't. Things could have worked out with Dai Dot in 2014, as they could have with Blue 80 (a Glaslyn male 2012 offspring) this year, or Jimmy before his untimely demise this week, or any number of other males for that matter that we don't know about.

On a basic level, evolution works on two measures: mistakes (genetic mutations) and luck. Blue 24's strategy isn't flawed in any way, it just hasn't worked yet; she has simply been a victim of bad luck.

It is both sad and interesting to see Blue 24 going about her daily business on the Dyfi. It will be fascinating to see how this one pans out. She really is the most beautiful of birds with, hopefully, many years of breeding ahead of her. We wish her well, but for now, it seems that she has missed out for another year in 2015. The fortune of being at the right place at the right time has evaded Blue 24 to date.

As BB King used to say, "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all". Seems it's true for some ospreys too.